Pressure on prices a typical occurrence in October
By Brian Hoops, Columnist
Prairie Star
Corn
The month of October is our harvest month when most of the pressure on prices is seen and normally we find our harvest lows when 50 percent to 70 percent of the harvest is complete. As of Oct. 9, harvest progress should have reached only 30 percent-35 percent completed. If the October USDA supply/demand report comes in under pre-report trade estimates we could see a big rally as the worst of supply side news would be behind us, taking December corn higher in an attempt to ration tight stocks.
However, any number on the high end of expectations will have the market anticipating another increase in the November report and the weight of the USDA production forecast should push prices lower into our harvest lows.
Once harvest reaches 50 percent to 70 percent completed, the harvest lows should be forming. We should then look to buy futures or options to re-own cash sales as we look for higher prices long term based on record large forecasted usage. As long as China remains out of the export market, Asian countries have no choice but to buy U.S. corn to meet their needs.
